http://www.kse.com.pk/

Mar 15, 2005

KSE 100 Index 10304.72
KSE All Share 6684.33
100 Idx Volume 570,173,880
100 Idx Value 60,638,736,005.00
Change +306.67


Lahore Stock Exchange
LSE 25 : 5700.32 +227.77

http://www.ise.com.pk/
Islamabad Stock Exchange
ISE 10 : 3727.42 +123.45

http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=2075...&term=&supDate=

Recent surge in KSE: local investors and Pakistanis expatiates major players, says Lakhani

KARACHI (March 15 2005): Chairman Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) Yasin Lakhani said on Monday that the local investors and overseas Pakistanis were the major players in the recent surge in the stock market. Commenting on the record breaking performance of the market; he said that a large chunk of savings from the fixed income instruments have also been migrated towards stock market due to high return. KSE 100-index on Monday recorded an all time high gain in a single day as the index crossed to a historical 10,000 level on hectic buying.

"Billions of rupees have been shifted from fixed income instruments where the return is negligible to stock market in the recent days. This is a saving of pensioners, retired employees and senior citizens," he added.

Lakhani said that the market was rising due to high return in the equities and on the higher expectations of government's privatisation plans.

"This is a privatisation driven surge as people are confident that this process will continue and more public sector organisations will be offered to them as well as the strategic investors in the days ahead," he observed.

Chairman KSE said that this surge was not artificial and the players were active in the selected scrips, where dividends and returns are high. For example, most of the activity is in oil and gas, fertiliser, banking and cement sectors where returns are higher, he added.

Lakhani said that PSO, National Refinery Ltd, PTCL and OGDC, are the driving scrips these days in the market on privatisation schedule. To a question, he said that better risk management has increased the confidence of investors and not a single incident of default has so far been reported after 2001. "The circuit breaker mechanism has prevented defaults and market is working smoothly despite such a giant stride," Lakhani noted.


Copyright Associated Press of Pakistan, 2005

Business snapshot from 5 years and three months ago:


http://www.dawn.com/2001/01/03/ebr.htm

Particular note to Indians and Mush-haters: Pakistani economy had started to improve long before Sept 11 attacks in NYC.

In more advanced countries, people will look up the priceless archives like that of the Dawn and feel pride and/or draw more educated conclusions. Can't we do it too?

http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/index.html

Wednesday March 16, 2005-- Safar 05, 1426 A.H.

KSE-100 index recomposed

KARACHI: The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) on Tuesday notified re-composition of the KSE-100 index by deleting four old companies from the list and adding four more fresh companies.

The new re-composed index would be applicable from April 1, 2005.

The incoming companies are: Pakistan Petroleum Ltd, Bank AlFalah Ltd, Jahangir Siddiqui Investment Bank and Dawood Lawrencepur Ltd.

The companies ousted from the KSE-100 index are: Southern Electric Power Company, Rafhan Bestfoods Ltd, Tri-Pack Films Ltd and Dewan Farooque Motors Ltd.

"The KSE management has carried out the re-composition exercise and the details of the changes in the KSE-100 index companies in accordance with the decision of the Board of Directors of the Exchange taken in a meeting," says the notice.

"It was decided that the data for future review shall be for the period from March to August and September to February, whereas re-composition should be announced independently by the management based on approved criteria of the board so as to be effective on October 1 and April 1 every year."

There would be no need to take board’s approval for inclusion and exclusion of the companies by name every year, under the formula.

The recomposed index, based on the prices of February 28, 2005, will capture the market capitalisation to the extent of 89.28 per cent of the total market capitalisation.

http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/index.html

KSE’s snowballing continues unabated

KARACHI: It was another red letter day for the KSE, as the index not only convincingly breached the 10,000 point barrier but snowballed to yet another unprecedented high at 10304.72.

However, it closed at 10303.13, up 305.08 points or 3 per cent, against the previous day’s closing level of 9998.05.

To all appearances, the market is now eyeing the 12,000-point target or may even advance further.

It is generally believed that as long as the process of privatisation of PTCLA, National Refinery, OGDC, PSO and PPL is not completed, the bull-run will continue gathering momentum.

........................................

http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/index.html

LSE breaches 5,700 mark

LAHORE: Equities continued moving up at Lahore Stock Exchange (LSE) on Tuesday as LSE-25 index breached 5,700 level for the first time in history.

Trading at LSE started on a bullish note and equities never looked back during the whole day. Though profit taking emerged from weak holders by mid day, which checked the advances, yet the index stayed not only in positive zone but beyond 5,700 level.

OGDC along with rest of fuel sector continued leading from front. Circuit breaker was also placed on the upper level of OGDC while there was some good activities in PPL following the news that the oligarchy of Oil Marketing Companies is expected to revise the POL product prices in upward direction.

HOLY SHIT!!

First of all it is good that the KSE is performing so good. But one must be aware that a possible bubble is being created. And once this bubble bursts, like we have seen in the western world, this will have far reaching effect on the pakistani economy. Especially the economy of the small investors/shareholders.

KSE drops by 223.93 on Wedesday Mar 16th, 2005

http://www.kse.com.pk/

KSE 100 Index 10079.20
KSE All Share 6534.40
100 Idx Volume 623,696,400
100 Idx Value 61,940,378,520.00
Change -223.93

Lahore Stock Exchange drops by 127.43
LSE 25 : 5572.89 -127.43

Islamabad Stock Exchange drops by 81.4
http://www.ise.com.pk/
ISE 10 : 3665.55 -81.4
ISE Network : 15044.66

Jahangir Siddiqui Capital Markets says OGDC shares which dominate KSE are overvalued by 35% they recommend sell. This points to technical corrections in KSE in few days.

http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/mar-2005/16/bnews5.php

OGDCL behaviour at KSE irrational

KARACHI-The Research Department of Jahangir Siddiqui Capital Markets Ltd. stated that once a while there comes a time when we see certain stocks start behaving in completely irrational manner.
We have started observing such behaviour in OGDCL whose share price has increased by nearly 136% since start of 2005. Keeping in view its dominant position in the benchmark KSE-100 Index, this increase in OGDCL’s share price has contributed nearly 2700 points (68%) of the 3780 points rise in KSE-100 Index. This means that the current privatization news driven rally is more of OGDCL driven rally.
The phenomenal rally in OGDCL stock started with rumors of positive earning surprise in 1HFY05 results.
Market was generally expecting Rs4 plus earnings for 1HFY05 due to positive one time tax adjustment. However, the actual results did not conform to such expectations. Another reason was rumors of privatization related announcement which looks unlikely in the short terms as
Privatisation Commission has too much on its plate at the moment. Keeping in view OGDCL’s huge size (market capitalization of $12.7bn) we expect OGDCL privatization to take a lot of time and PC would prefer to complete PTCL, NLR and PPL transactions before privatizing OGDCL.
They believe the main reason for abnormal increase in OGDCL share price is its dominant position in the market with limited free float. Despite recent increase in its share price some fund managers are likely to stick to their OGDCL holding to make an Index aligned portfolio. With only 5% (215mn shares) of OGDCL shares listed on the market, and 34% weight in benchmark KSE-100 Index, it is simply case of too many hands chasing too few stocks .Due to its limited free float, we believe OGDCL share may have been cornered by some speculators to manipulate the Index direction.
Despite its huge size and being the largest domestic enterprise in terms of profitability OGDCL can sustain a reasonable growth in the long term due to rising oil and gas production, strong oil price outlook and Rupee
devaluation. We expect OGDCL to post a net profit ofRs34.8bn (EPS Rs8.1) during FY05 with cash dividend of Rs6/share. It is currently trading at leading PE of 21.8x with dividend yield of 3.4%. We expect OGDCL profitability to increase at CAGR of 9% during FY05-FY10.
Our fair value for OGDCL stock based on Saudi/Arab Light oil price assumption of US $38.5/barrel during FY05, followed by US $35/barrel in FY06 and $ 32/barrel henceforward is Rs115/share. Saudi/Arab Light trades at $ 8/barrel discount to US oil prices. Assuming prices to remain at current level of $42/barrel, our fair value for OGDCL comes to Rs130. Thus, even in most optimistic case, the current market price is at 35% premium to its fair value. We recommend ‘Sell’ for OGDCL.

its fucked up at 8700 again!!!

Damn dude the KSE 100, ISE 10, and LSE 25 combined total was 19,732.46 almost 20,000! But its cool though b/c india (hindus) still suks so i'm still happy. (In the long run Pakistan will beat india, b/c we're not afraid to take risk)

GreenBeret,

Take it easy.

Check on the “Drop” in the Dow Jones and FT100.

The KSE Index may go down to 7,000 but will then in a couple of weeks or a month or do get back to at least 9,000. Within a reasonable time period it might even go above 10,000.

That is the nature of the Market

Peace