Gwadar's role

Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz went to some length on Monday to emphasise that the port of Gwadar has no military element to it. "Never ever was Gwadar considered for being turned into a military base," he told a questioner after his address at the Japan Institute of International Affairs. More specifically, he addressed a question that naturally gave rise to speculation that Gwadar would develop into a military base some day: the fact that the Chinese are taking such interest in the giant project. China is a rising economic, industrial and military power whose rapid growth even has the United States worried. It also has an increasingly powerful navy whose role is no longer confined to just territorial defence.

Some parties have seen something more strategic in China's active interest in the project than simply the building of a cargo facility at Gwadar, for which purpose it is extending technical and financial assistance to Pakistan, according to the prime minister. "Any speculations that Gwadar has any defence facility or is likely to be used for military purposes are false and far from the facts," he declared. Mr Aziz's strong denial is unlikely to dispel the doubts that, naturally, will still remain in certain circles. The China element with regard to Gwadar is now out in the open, rather remaining in the realm of speculations. Matters that just continue to simmer have a way of developing into controversies, and Pakistan already has too many to deal with.

However, Mr Aziz, cannot deny that Gwadar's extremely strategic location, which he also discussed at the gathering, that could make the port, and Pakistan, vulnerable to being sucked into the sphere of influence of one big power or another. Even if China were eying Gwadar as a future base, the process would require time. The United States is already overactive in the Gulf-Indian Ocean, and almost inextricably involved in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Pakistan must make sure its engagement with foreign powers is confined to its own economic, political and strategic interests, as the prime minister's statement made clear that Islamabad intends to, and not become entangled with theirs.

Well, now that it is official, Gwadar will most likely not be used as a military base. However, Shaukat Aziz did not state whether or not the PLAN will be allowed in Pakistan's waters meaning that the Chinese could be given a naval base BY Gwadar.

Plan will have presence in gwader its a military strategic decison to build gwadar so china can access the straits of hormuz more esaily although pakistan is saying its for economic purpose's only

it would be more effect if they had a base at ormara (PLAN) and an army/air force contigenet north of gwadar (to protect the supply lines going to china, and if needed in gwadar)

but in terms of naval presence, a base like ormara if far away to be out of sight, but still near by for quick reaction

also china would only need a refueling base, and by the time they have a force in the arabian sea in large numbers it would probably be as part of a task force or carrier battle group, in which case they would have refuelers and resupply ships

they would only need bases for refueling and some shore leave (a few days), but not a permaent presence

Aziz is spouting crap for the media to consume and keep heat off of Pakistan (from US which is still trying to get China the hell out of Gwadar). The whole world knows that Gwadar will not Start with a military base but WILL EVENTUALLY get one...and China will in all likelyhood have access to it.

as far as pakistan is concerned, this is the right policy. the US obviously does NOT want china in that area, and as far as i'm concerned, pakistani policy makers do. they would much rather have china have access to that area than the US. we all know that. PLAANs operation and presence in that area will serve two goals. it brings a challenger to the US's sole presence in that area for decades, and it presents a problem to india as china can keep an eye out for itself and for pakistan. so there will be joint patrolling of that area in all likelihood. and trust me, neither the US or india will be very happy with that. very smart move by pakistan.

Once gwader is fully operation it will pumping $80 billion worth of good through its channels, mostly going to chinas western under developed regions, off course china is going to have a presence. Would be good position to allow china to station some straegic bombers too for access to the middleast. China needs power projection and thats whats its going to get

Considering the American Navy's presence in the Indian Ocean, I think China may be present with a few ships and/or submarines, or its Air Force in the region to monitor and guard its trade routes.

Maybe the Chinese can station one to three squadrons of long range fighter-bombers at Gwadar (or even at a base by Gwadar). The fighter bombers, along with some DDG's and subs, can become a massive force multiplier in the region.

Im sure that they will have some sort of fighter bombers stationed there, theres not doubt, on naval presence i would like to see Submarines and some advanced DDG's. Theres even reports of PLA installing eavesdropping equipment and advanced sonar devices to intercept US activities. Manys things will come with Gwader and china is going to utilize its potentail and rightly so.

http://www.jamestown.org/news_details.php?news_id=93

02/16/2005 - By Tarique Niazi

Four months after the U.S. ordered its troops into Afghanistan to remove the Taliban regime, China and Pakistan joined hands to break ground in building a Deep Sea Port on the Arabian Sea. The project was sited in an obscure fishing village of Gwadar in Pakistan's western province of Baluchistan, bordering Afghanistan to the northwest and Iran to the southwest. Gwadar is nautically bounded by the Persian Gulf in the west and the Gulf of Oman in the southwest.

Although the Gwadar Port project has been under study since May 2001, the U.S. entrée into Kabul provided an added impetus for its speedy execution. Having set up its bases in Central, South, and West Asian countries, the U.S. virtually brought its military forces at the doorstep of China. Beijing was already wary of the strong U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf, which supplies 60% of its energy needs. It was now alarmed to see the U.S. extend its reach into Asian nations that ring western China. Having no blue water navy to speak of, China feels defenseless in the Persian Gulf against any hostile action to choke off its energy supplies. This vulnerability set Beijing scrambling for alternative safe supply routes for its energy shipments. The planned Gwadar Deep Sea Port was one such alternative for which China had flown its Vice Premier, Wu Bangguo, to Gwadar to lay its foundation on March 22, 2002.

Pakistan was interested in the project to seek strategic depth further to the southwest from its major naval base in Karachi that has long been vulnerable to the dominant Indian Navy. In the past, it endured prolonged economic and naval blockades imposed by the Indian Navy. To diversify the site of its naval and commercial assets, Pakistan has already built a naval base at Ormara, the Jinnah Naval Base, which has been in operation since June 2000. It can berth about a dozen ships, submarines and similar harbor craft. The Gwadar port project, however, is billed to crown the Pakistan Navy into a force that can rival regional navies. The government of Pakistan has designated the port area as a "sensitive defense zone." Once completed, the Gwadar port will rank among the world's largest deep-sea ports.

The convergence of Sino-Pakistani strategic interests has put the port project onto a fast track to its early completion. In three years since its inauguration, the first phase of the project is already complete with three functioning berths. The Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will be on hand to mark the completion of this phase in March this year. Although the total cost of the project is estimated at $1.16 billion USD, China pitched in $198 million and Pakistan $50 million to finance the first phase. China also has invested another $200 million into building a coastal highway that will connect the Gwadar port with Karachi. The second phase, which will cost $526 million, will feature the construction of 9 more berths and terminals and will also be financed by China. To connect western China with Central Asia by land routes, Pakistan is working on building road links to Afghanistan from its border town of Chaman in Baluchistan to Qandahar in Afghanistan. In the northwest, it is building similar road links between Torkham in Pakhtunkhaw (officially known as the Northwest Frontier Province) and Jalalabad in Afghanistan. Eventually, the Gwadar port will be accessible for Chinese imports and exports through overland links that will stretch to and from Karakoram Highway in Pakistan's Northern Areas that border China's Muslim-majority Autonomous Region of Xinjiang. In addition, the port will be complemented with a modern air defense unit, a garrison, and a first-rate international airport capable of handling airbus service.

Pakistan already gives China most favored nation (MFN) status and is now establishing a bilateral Free Trade Area (FTA), which will bring tariffs between the two countries to zero. Over the past two years, the trade volume between the two countries has jumped to $2.5 billion a year, accounting for 20% of China's total trade with South Asia. Informal trade, a euphemism for smuggling, however, is several times the formal trade. The proposed FTA is an implicit acceptance of the unstoppable "informal" trade as a "formal" one. More importantly, Chinese investment in Pakistan has increased to $4 billion, registering a 30% increase just over the past two years since 2003. Chinese companies make up 12% (60) of the foreign firms (500) operating in Pakistan, which employ over 3,000 Chinese nationals.

The growing economic cooperation between Beijing and Islamabad is also solidifying their strategic partnership. Before leaving for his visit to Beijing this past December, Pakistani Prime Minister Aziz told reporters in Islamabad: "Pakistan and China are strategic partners and our relations span many areas." The rhetoric of strategic alignment is duly matched by reality. Last year, China and Pakistan conducted their first-ever joint naval exercises near the Shanghai coast. These exercises, among others, included simulation of an emergency rescue operation. Last December, Pakistan opened a consulate in Shanghai. The Gwadar Port project is the summit of such partnership that will bring the two countries closer in maritime defense as well.

Initially, China was reluctant to finance the Gwadar port project because Pakistan offered the U.S. exclusive access to two of its critical airbases in Jacobabad (Sind) and Pasni (Baluchisntan) during the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. According to a Times of India report on February 19, 2002, Gen. Musharraf had to do a lot of explaining for leasing these bases to America. China, the Times of India reported, was also upset with Pakistan for allowing the U.S. to establish listening posts in Pakistan's Northern Areas, which border Xinjiang and Tibet. When China finally agreed to offer financial and technical assistance for the project, it asked for "sovereign guarantees" to use the Port facilities to which Pakistan agreed, despite U.S. unease over it.

In particular, the port project set off alarm bells in India which already feels encircled by China from three sides: Myanmar, Tibet, and Pakistan. To counter Sino-Pak collaboration, India has brought Afghanistan and Iran into an economic and strategic alliance. Iranians are already working on Chabahar port in Sistan-Baluchistan, which will be accessible for Indian imports and exports with road links to Afghanistan and Central Asia. India is helping build a 200-kilometer road that will connect Chabahar with Afghanistan. Once completed, Indians will use this access road to the port for their imports and exports to and from Central Asia. Presently, India is in urgent need of a shorter transit route to quickly get its trade goods to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

These external concerns are stoking internal challenges to the port project. Baluchistan, where the project is located, is once again up in arms against the federal government. The most important reason for armed resistance against the Gwadar port is that Baluch nationalists see it as an attempt to colonize them and their natural resources. Several insurgent groups have sprung up to nip the project in the bud. The three most popular are: the Baluchistan Liberation Army, Baluchistan Liberation Front, and People's Liberation Army. On May 3, 2004, the BLA killed three Chinese engineers working on the port project that employs close to 500 Chinese nationals. On October 9, 2004, two Chinese engineers were kidnapped in South Waziristan in the northwest of Pakistan, one of whom was killed later on October 14 in a botched rescue operation. Pakistan blamed India and Iran for fanning insurgency in Baluchistan.

Moreover, the Chinese in Pakistan are vulnerable because of their tense relationship with the Uighur Muslim majority of Xinjiang. Stretched over an area of 635,833 square miles, Xinjiang is more than twice the size of Pakistan, and one-sixth of China's landmass. However, it dwarfs in demographic size with a population of 19 million people. Beijing is investing 730 billion yuan (roughly $88 billion USD) in western China, including Xinjiang, which opens it up to the six Muslim countries of Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan. Despite this massive investment, displacement of Uighers from Urumqi, Xinjiang's capital, is drawing fire, where the population of mainland Chinese of Han descent has grown from 10% in 1949 to 41% in 2004. In direct proportion, the population of native Uighurs has declined from 90% in 1949 to 47% in 2004. Tens of thousands of displaced Uighurs have found refuge in Pakistan where the majority of them live in its two most populous cities: Lahore and Karachi.

The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is fighting against Chinese attempts at so-called "Hanification" of Xinjiang. Pakistan, which along with China and the U.S. lists the ETIM as a terrorist organization, killed the ETIM's head, Hasan Mahsum, in South Waziristan on October 2, 2004. Seven days after, two Chinese were kidnapped from the area, one of whom was killed in a rescue operation. The thousands of Chinese working in Pakistan make tempting targets for violent reprisals by the ETIM or Baluch nationalists.

The realization of economic and strategic objectives of the Gwadar port is largely dependent upon the reduction of separatist violence in Baluchistan and Xinjiang. Chinese response to secessionism is aggressive economic development, which is driving the Gwadar port project also. The port is intended to serve China's threefold economic objective:

-First, to integrate Pakistan into the Chinese economy by outsourcing low-tech, labor-absorbing, resource-intensive industrial production to Islamabad, which will transform Pakistan into a giant factory floor for China;
-Second, to seek access to Central Asian markets for energy imports and Chinese exports by developing road networks and rail links through Afghanistan and Pakistan into Central Asia;
-Third, to appease restive parts of western China, especially the Muslim-majority autonomous region of Xinjiang, through a massive infusion of development funds and increased economic links with the Central Asian Islamic nations of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

The port, by design or by default, also provides China a strategic foothold in the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, although to the alarm of India and the unease of the U.S. sitting opposite the Strait of Hurmoz, through which 80% of the world's energy exports flow, the Gwadar port will enable China to monitor its energy shipments from the Persian Gulf, and offer it, in the case of any hostile interruption in such shipments, a safer alternative passage for its energy imports from Central Asia. Its presence on the Indian Ocean will further increase its strategic influence with major South Asian nations, particularly Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, which would prompt the Indians in turn to re-strengthen their Navy.

Tarique Niazi teaches Environmental Sociology at the University of Wisconsin, Eau Claire. He specializes in Resource-based Conflicts. He may be reached via email: niazit@uwec.edu


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Very interesting article on the development of Gwadar and how neighboring countries are reacting to it. I put it in this thread because even though the title speaks of the Chinese navy, the article itself is more global oriented. It would be interesting to see what happens when Gwadar becomes fully functional. What type of PLAN ships would there be? My guess would be the latest missile guided destroyers and maybe some Song or Kilo class subs. Won't be able to defeat the USN, but it would be nice to see more than one foreign navy in the Indian Ocean.

A nice article in pdf format on

Baluchistan, Beijing and Gwadar Port

http://www.stimson.org/southasia/pdf/GWADAR.pdf

salam

well gwadar will play important role in our economy ..as Dubai plays a vital role in UAE's economy ..dxb is trade hub and InshAllah gwadar will b da gateway to east .i Hope tht our givt use da funds generated wisely and on peoples welfare wid balance in defence and economic budget ...InshAllah

Allah Hafiz

yeah hope it will play vital role in our economy and Govt. will use it wisely.if its handle like *** it will change nothing but hope as chinese hope are with gwadar everything will be fine.i wish countries like japan/EU and more muslim countries invest in PK.
but issues in Iran and Afghan problem should be take care by now we can't ake risk on Gawdar .

Pakistan will be investing about seven billion US dollars in next eight years to improve road and rail infrastructure and create a network that links China and the South Asian countries to the Gawadar port on Mekran coast by 2014.

The up coming oil mega-city on the shoreline of Baluchistan has two components viz. the petrochemical city and the biggest refinery with storage complexes and warehouses in the region.

When the project of developing Gawadar as a deep-sea port was undertaken in 2004, Beijing provided 80 per cent of 248 million US Dollars as the initial development cost of the port. Sino-Pak planners expect the port to initially generate revenue of 23.6 billion US dollars, with a capacity to reach 42.2 billion.

On February 8, 2007, Port of Singapore Authority (SPA) signed an agreement with Gawadar Port Authority (GPA) and the Concession Holding Company (CHC), a subsidiary of PSA. Close to the Strait of Hormuz, Gawadar deep-sea port is likely to be at the convergence of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

This big enterprise pioneered by China has not only trade and commercial aspects of considerable significance but is also of far reaching political and strategic importance to the region, namely the oil rich Gulf and South Asia

With the completion of the project, Gawadar port, just seventy kilometres away from the Iranian border, becomes the economic and trade transit point for Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asia and the Middle East. It will facilitate transhipment of containerised cargo, unlock development potential of hinterland and become the regional hub for major trade activities.

When road and rail link is finally established. Gawadar will be China’s first foothold in the oil rich Gulf States and the Middle East.

At present the distance from China’s gateway port for its western region is 3,500 kilometers assuming Kashghar as the main eastern city in Uighur Autonomous Region. But distance from Kashghar to Gawadar is only 1500 kilometres. Thus Gawadar is far more lucrative an entrepot.

With this vision of future trading and strategic prospects, China helped in developing deep-water commercial port capable of handling cargo ships up to 50,000 tons or more.

Oil hungry China is eyeing the untapped hydrocarbon resources of Central Asia. She is already conducting oil transactions with Kazakhstan. But with the impending plan of laying five pipelines from Central Asia to Gawadar China will ensure big oil and gas supplies to run the wheels of her fast expanding economy at home.

China has also the ambition of turning the facility into a transit terminal for Iranian and Afghan crude oil exports.

Reports are that China and Pakistan have already held talks for laying strategic pipelines from Gawadar to Chinese border to transport oil from South Asia. The 14.5 meter deep and 5 kilometer long approach channel through three berths will be capable of handling carriers up to 50,000 dead weight tons. Beijing will build refinery and petrochemical complex at Gawadar with initial 10 million ton capacity, which would later go up to 20 million tons.

Once oil and gas from Central Asia and the Middle East begin to flow into the huge refineries of Gawadar, it will have consequential impact on oil-related regional strategy. In a sense, Pakistan’s Makran coast is gearing up to become the alternate of mega complexes of the Gulf States. This could be called a new phase in the proverbial “new great game”.

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In our contemporary world, varied regional groupings are readily made on the basis of ideology, prospects of economic cooperation, ethnic homogeneity or geographic proximity. There is a strong case to be made for clustering countries like China, Iran, Afghanistan, India and Pakistan together, not for the purpose of integrating them into a regional association however, but merely to understand the larger context of the ongoing developments initiated by the ‘war against terror’.

After more than a decade and half of neglect, there is renewed US interest in this sub-region, which has multiple long-term implications. Besides wreaking immense destruction, the US ‘war against terror’ has also led to a large inflow of foreign aid. Since 2002, international donors have pledged nearly $24 billion for developmental activities in Afghanistan. Yet the Afghani economy has not reached a critical mass where it could take off on its own strength. Pakistan, too, has been the recipient of immense bilateral and multilateral aid, not only for its support to the US but also due to the 2005 earthquake. The US itself has recently committed $800 million for countering ‘Talibanisation’ in the northern areas of the country.

Only India has decided, since 2003, to phase out foreign aid from all but six major donors. Instead, it has become one of the largest donors to Afghanistan. It has even signed a preferential trade agreement with Afghanistan. But Pakistan is wary of providing a land route to India, since the two countries are competing for the same consumer-goods market in Afghanistan. Pakistan only allows Afghanistan the transit rights for its exports to go to India, but not the other way round. While Pakistan still has the largest volume of trade with Afghanistan, many more trade routes could be opened across the lengthy border region if the security situation improves.

Given that Pakistan has been unwilling to grant India preferential trade status without progress on the core issue of Kashmir, India has begun to look eastward to forge closer relations with ASEAN, and to form new partnerships like the Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand Economic Cooperation (BIMST-EC), which plans a free trade pact by 2017. China too has become India’s second largest trading partner, with their two-way trade worth $20 billon dollars a year and expected to double by 2010. On the other hand, trade between China and Pakistan has increased by 35% since 2004. This trade balance still remains overwhelmingly in China’s favour, whose exports amounted to $1.8 billion compared with Pakistan’s $575 million.

While still continuing to reward Pakistan’s cooperation in the ‘war against terror’, the US Congress has begun warning of aid cuts to Pakistan with the weakening of the Republicans under Bush. If elected to the White House, the Democrats may withdraw from Afghanistan and take a much tougher stance against Pakistan by using India to apply pressure from afar. The US-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Co-operation Act, signed under the Clinton administration, was already a step in this direction. An important implication of this US-India deal is a reference to integrating Non-Proliferation Treaty outliers like India and Pakistan into the mainstream through a Regional Non Proliferation Regime to prevent export of nuclear technology to other non-nuclear states. The implications of this attempt for Pakistan have yet to become overt. Nonetheless, besides increasing Indian nuclear energy outputs, US support will also lead to increased Indian access to technology in other spheres, which Pakistan will be increasingly wary of.

Pakistan is thus keen on developing even closer ties with China. Ignored by the US, Pakistan is now undertaking nuclear energy cooperation with China. There are plans to build six more nuclear reactors, besides the one already built with Chinese help in Chasma. China has helped Pakistan build the Gawadar deep-sea port as well. For Pakistan, Gwadar’s distance from India is of strategic importance. Gwadar also provides China a foothold in the Arabian Sea, which heightens India’s feeling of encirclement by China. But China is currently more interested in getting a strategic foothold near the Persian Gulf region, vis-à-vis the US. China is in fact on a path of rapprochement with India, but unlike the US it remains more cautious about not sidelining Pakistan in this process.

There are internal compulsions requiring greater cooperation despite the lingering tensions between previously hostile neighbours. Cooperation in the energy sector to fuel economic growth is one such example, although this example is not free of contentions either. One of the proposed projects is a gas pipeline between Pakistan, Iran and India, and Turkmenistan, India and Afghanistan, respectively. Many experts have opined that there is no evidence of huge quantities of gas in Turkmenistan to justify the laying of a pipeline. Besides, the government in Kabul is in no position to guarantee the security of such a pipeline. Moreover, it would be difficult to raise finances for such a risky project in Western financial markets, even though the US is more in favour of this pipeline than one going through Iran.

Besides an escalation of violence in Afghanistan and creating more turmoil in Pakistan, another immediate consequence of a strike on Iran as part of a broadening of the US ‘war against terror’ would be a humanitarian crisis in terms of the movement of refugees into the Herat, Farah and Nimruz provinces of Afghanistan, and towards Balochistan in Pakistan. An influx of Irani refugees into Afghanistan would no doubt destablise an already fragile Afghan government. Already, Pakistan has announced that all 2.4 million Afghan refugees must return home by 2009, despite the Afghan government’s inability to ensure their adequate resettlement.

Many future developments in this region are therefore inextricably tied to larger geo-strategic realities. Change in one country invariably affects the others. Such are the realities of the new world order; dismissing them just leads to over-simplification and a much less nuanced understanding of the part of the world that we live in.

Gwadar, a trade corridor of Asia

ISLAMABAD (August 22 2007): Geographically, Pakistan is located at a place so-called trade corridor of Asia. The trading of goods through ports and shipment give a tremendous boost to a country's economy.

The construction of a mega project like Gwadar is also an emanating step of upgradation of ports, which will give tremendous boost to Pakistan's importance in the whole region, extending from the Persian Gulf, starting through the Indian Ocean, to Southeast Asia, up to Far East, PTV reported. Gwadar port is situated 470 km westward from Karachi on the coast of Arabian Sea.

The 98 percent of the cargo traffic is currently operated by Karachi port and, by construction of Gwadar port, not only the entire burden will be transferred to Gwadar port, it would also provide warehousing, transshipment, and industrial facilities for trade to more than 20 countries.

The construction of Gwadar port has also prevailed its burgeoning benefits by the completion of three other mega projects that are situated near the port, like Meerani dam, which is capable of irrigating the 34,000 acres land area.

oreover, a Sandik project that would provide 12,500 tons raw copper and sufficient reservoirs of gold, operated by Chinese company MRDL, which invested $25 million on it by means of creating a link between Taftan and Saindak that would provide an efficient way of transporting these precious metals for further processing in the cities.

The third one is the mega construction of 653 km long Makran Coastal Highway that links Karachi with Gwadar and it cost $200 million. The construction of transport facility to Gwadar by means of planes, in which an airport with a 9,000-foot jet runway, capable of handling Airbus and Boeing aircraft costing Rs 450 million is on way to completion.

And, by means of road, another 515 km long highway, connecting Gwadar via Panjgpur, Khaan, Chaghi and Rabat up to Herat in western Afghanistan will be constructed, that will link Pakistan directly with the roads with the central Asian countries.

Also, the construction of a railway track that would link Gwadar with other cities of Pakistan, costing $1.25 billion is also a big step towards its significant development. The construction of residential plan in Gwadar, commonly known as 'Gwadar City' that constitutes a residential area of 400 hectares, stretching north of the existing town along West Bay, is on way to completion.

Now, with the construction of this port, and other mega projects started in Balochistan, the government can earn up to $60 billion every year over a span of time, and hopefully would provide a firm basis for the socio-economic uplift.

http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=6084...m=&supDate=