http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/index.html


Pakistan’s growth rate in next 10 years to sustain at 7 percent: Report

(Updated at 2120 PST)

ISLAMABAD: The Merrill Lynch in its Asia-Pacific report has said over next ten years Pakistan’s growth rate will remain at between 6-7 percent.

According to report, what is toughest challenge for the country is to sustain the growth rate.

The report has suggested expansion in Pakistan’s production sector and increased investment in the infrastructure projects would help sustain economic development in the country.

Devastation losses from October’s killer earthquake would not impact country’s economic situation, for there was not that many agricultural activates.

i hope that mushraff remains in the power because i think that he doing a lot of stuff for people of pakistan.

I see it growing even more infact.

For the next 4-5 years things will stay the same but with extra industry building as it is, Gwadar coming into action, i see the rate rising if nothing else....inshallah.

Can someone do the math and guesstimate what the Pak economy would be in ER terms if this pans out.

Taking 2005's year end GDP as the base.

I forget the formula.

At growth of 7% over the next ten years Pakistan's GDP in real terms will be $226bn by 2015; With a population of 205,000,000. Hence thats a GDP per capita of around $1250 Nominal by 2015, That puts in league with Egypt and Georgia as per GDP per capita nomial is concerned.

Our exports will be around $60bn or atleast close $57bn as our government plans to double our exports every 5 years, since we currently export around $15-$17bn this will be around $30 bn by 2010 and around $60bn by 2015.

Oh and our literacy rate should be around 90% since illiteracy is to decrease around 4/5% per annum.

"We have to achieve our targeted improvement of a 60% literacy level by 2005 and over 90% by 2015."

http://www.presidentofpakistan.gov.pk/Visi...usPakistan.aspx

If we can achieve the literacy targets, that'll be the biggest cause for celebration. Education is the currency of the future.

But sadly rural Pakistan, and at least 50% of Pak is still rural, has a massive underdevelopment of educational facilities.

So $260bn nominal. That's not so bad.

right now it it is $93 Billion GDP, so by 2015 it would actually be $183 Billion Actual
so basically GDP doubles in 10 years

alot depends on gwadar's growth, just like UAE's growth is largerly dependant on Dubai's growth
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also the economy could grow alot if we get a good piece of the IT industry, and alot of groeth would come from shipments from china down to gwadar and back and forth, also back and forth between the CAR's/afghanistan and the arabian sea

if natural resources are extracted and developed in country into a finished product and exported, that would help alot as well

and the potiential growth of agricultural products if the dams bring a constant supply of water every year

also if electricity is cheaper, industry can grow, and that would bring about a good location for foreign investors to do overseas production, like the do in china

with gwadar and the planned modernized transportation netowrk planned, prodution would be very attractive in pakistan, as it is in china
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and as in china, when the economyh grow's fast, along with social uplifting through educatioin and public services, the quality of the local worker will be globally competitive, and that in it self will bring further growth when these worker's compete in the global marketplaces

and as in china economic growth for a decade will allow further modernizations to be finacially feasible and not a major drain on the economy

The govt revised the GDP figure of 04-05 which stood at 104 billion dollars. The govt would revise GDP every three years from now on. So that would bring additional sectors in the economy which means the figure after 10 years would be more likely higher than just a multiplication and addition of current GDP and 7 % gowth rate.

There are other factors to keep in mind which have catalyst effect on the growth rate of GDP as well. The rupee exchange rate and expansion of government sector are two major catalyst and both are likely to go through change in the next 10 years.

Does anyone know about the 72 factor that is used as a rough estimate to assess how soon an economy would essentially double.

It is used as 72/x where x is the growth rate integer, so if M-Lynch is right then our economy will double in 72/7 = 10.3 yrs.

Pakistan has so many sectors which have not been added to the official calculations. Pakistan's GDP is way above what is usually stated.

some economists estimate that the unnaccounted GDP is as much as the documented one. so even now, where the documented GDP is around 100 billion the actual may be anywhere between $150 billion and $200 billion.




for this to happen, Musharaff and Aziz need to stay in power for at least another 5-7 years without any major mishaps. I think he plans to stay that long anyway.

I don't see Musharraf going anywhere. He will be around until 2011 at least....to co-oincide with the 2nd term that PMLQ WILL win in 2007.

Growth could increase i think dependant on how big Gwadar gets. It coud be a regional hub or we could make it an international hub. If that city hits it big and people from all over the world are focusing trade thru it, then the whole coast line could expand, Karachi could be sent into an overdrive of expantion and little towns along the makran high way may become large bustling cities of trade and comerce.

This could spell growth for any town/city near road or gas piplines from little things like truck stops and cafes to perhaps even refineries to turn the crude product into a more marketable form before exporting it!!

IT and communications is the next big thing, we need to have a stratergy to out grow even India in this sector, because this will be oil of the future, we need to be well versed and established in this.

in 30 years time we could be in the top 1-20 economies in the world and our people could be living existances that they could have never dreamed of.

Kidswho sleep on the streets ay be driving european cars and living in homes and working 9-5 jobs and going out for kulfi with thier kids on the weekend.

Inshallah.

The boom is allover the emerging economies almost a dozen of them are growing at the rate of more than 6-7% with stock market at dizzying heights for last 3 years. Only China is the exception with much steady and higher growth trajectory with little to show for in stock markets growth. The growth and market boom has happened, at least in part, because of the global economic change and immense liquidity that was injected by the developed world mostly US and Japan in the world economy after Internet bubble burst and 911 in 2001. Now things are changing again and the countries who would set the policies straight and adopt economics over politics will succeed in keeping the desired trajectory of their economies in new world of higher interest rate and shrinking liquidity brought back by developed economies to fight inflation.

only if we control our population growth, control inflation and deregulate the economy constantly. Furthermore, our economy needs to move away from a dependence on agriculture and move to a morebalanced economy with agriculture, industry and the servive sector providing almost equal share to the economic activity in the country. Oh and education. We need heavy investment in education to give us a competitive edge.

Just for instance

The Gems and Jewelry industry in Pakistan is heavily under-estimated. Stones are exported for 1/10th (invoice value) of the real value. This could change easily if they make a policy change. If raw materials are imported and finished products exported with minimal tax, then the export figure could increase multi-fold.

Hundi/Hawala system is in abundance so most of the $s in Pakistan's economy is unaccounted for.

Moth makes a good point about selling products rather than raw materails....

we can afford to sell them cheaper thaan other people due to cheaper labour costs but still make a bomb!