Pakistani Defence Forum > Pakistans Economy In 2015?

ajaj

Feb 21 2006, 10:02 AM

Assalam-O-Aleikum,

I have been reading alot about the turnaround of the Pakistani economy and I am very excited about the future.

I was wondering whether any of you guys have a estimate of how the economy will look like in 2015.

Pakistans Economy : http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbo...os/pk.html#Econ

Bye,

Saqib

faz101

Feb 21 2006, 12:04 PM

mate that's a very long time horizon to give an accurate prediction over. your talking about how the economy will look in 9 yrs assuming the domestic situation stays stable, assuming there is no global downturn, assuming there is no action against Iran or there isn't any further eyeballing against India, assuming inflation doesn't creep too high, assuming investment is mostly put to productive use....get the flow?

a better question to ask is how is the economy looking for the next yr or so...something i can't give u an accurate answer to because i honestly haven't studied the economic data on Pakistan.

ajaj

Feb 21 2006, 02:38 PM

lol you are right............well about 2010 then ? I cant go further down that :P

ISI2003

Feb 21 2006, 07:42 PM

Merill Lynch said 6-7% Annual Growth predicted over the next 10 years, or about 79-96% growth over ten years

Roughly 80-100% Growth over ten years
currently GDP is over $100 Billion, So in Ten years it could be more than $200 Billion
---------------------------
I think that is conservative, Prospects seem sto include many industries that have alot of potiential, and considering at first alot depends on FDI, and FDI increasing alot ($3 Billion for this year over $1.5 Billion Last year)

1. if Pakistan establishes a good transit economy based on cargo shipping (trucking and rail transporting, actually) goods to and from (through) China, CIS, Afghanistan

2. Also The IT industry is currently a big part of India's growth, and pakistan is currently not even havig $50 Million a year in Profits when India is making $36 Billion a year (Each IT job creates 2.36 jobs), We are now getting in to the IT industry, and in Ten years, who knows how big the Pakistani IT industry will be

3. Also with alot of electricity, and Stable Water supply through Dams, This will create record amount of Agricultural products

4. Also Pakistani Industrial products should be doing well, possibly even Defense Articles, like the FC-1

5. Possible Major tourim in kashmir, after the rebuilding, and the simpathy visits by the worlds people, and especially after the government's dissions to allow major tourism, this could lead to alot of maoney from visits to the "Alpes of the East"

6. The Oil Shipping through Pipelines

7. Pakistan's Resourses finally getting utilized through FDI

8. And Last But Not Least GWADAR

MoThSmOkE

Feb 22 2006, 01:17 AM

Lets say,

6.5% average growth for the next 10 years.

- Bhasha and Munda dams, increasing electricity output, water storage and agricultural production.

- Two more nuclear power plants.

- Qatar-Pakistan gas pipeline & Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline.

- Increase in investments at the rate of 15% annually.

- Rail/Road link with Afghanistan and other CAR states.

- Gwadar.

USAM

Feb 22 2006, 02:39 AM

If Mushraf remains in power then future of Pakistan seems brighter then other cases. Anyway increase in exports is very important factor so Pakistan's exports should be above $19.7 Billion at the end of 2006-2007 to give strong base to economy with the component of engineering exports over $ 1 Billion.

ajaj

Feb 22 2006, 08:57 AM

QUOTE(USAM @ Feb 22 2006, 10:39 AM)

If Mushraf remains in power then future of Pakistan seems brighter then other cases. Anyway increase in exports is very important factor so Pakistan's exports should be above $19.7 Billion at the end of 2006-2007 to give strong base to economy with the component of engineering exports over $ 1 Billion.
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thx for the replies guys.

Dilpakistani

Feb 22 2006, 11:22 AM

Well it can't be predicted that early. But from few things we can determine the stand of economy in say 2010.

- Exports target for 2010 are more than 30+ Bn USD...
- FDI target is 8 bn usd
- Continuess GDP Growth rate of 6%+ would take Pakistan GDP beyond 175bn usd
- Foriegn Account reserves (if maintained with ratio as it is today) would be
arround 17Bn usd
- Population would be more than arround 180 million ppl
- Fiscal Budget would be arround 33bn usd+ as compared to 16 bn usd this year
- Per capita income would be arround 1000$
- PSDP would be arround 12 bn usd compared to five billion USD this year
- Forieg remitences and aid (if we countinuee to recieve) would be around 7-8 billion USD
- Defense budget would be 6-7 bn usd
..............................................................

If we manage to meet our seatled targets(Inshallah we will) then the future of Pakistan lets say for 2015 -2025 would be even more brighter.....

ChthonicPowers

Feb 22 2006, 12:12 PM

QUOTE(ISI2003 @ Feb 22 2006, 06:42 AM)

Merill Lynch said 6-7% Annual Growth predicted over the next 10 years, or about 79-96% growth over ten years

Roughly 80-100% Growth over ten years
currently GDP is over $100 Billion, So in Ten years it could be more than $200 Billion
---------------------------
I think that is conservative, Prospects seem sto include many industries that have alot of potiential, and considering at first alot depends on FDI, and FDI increasing alot ($3 Billion for this year over $1.5 Billion Last year)

1. if Pakistan establishes a good transit economy based on cargo shipping (trucking and rail transporting, actually) goods to and from (through) China, CIS, Afghanistan

2. Also The IT industry is currently a big part of India's growth, and pakistan is currently not even havig $50 Million a year in Profits when India is making $36 Billion a year (Each IT job creates 2.36 jobs), We are now getting in to the IT industry, and in Ten years, who knows how big the Pakistani IT industry will be

3. Also with alot of electricity, and Stable Water supply through Dams, This will create record amount of Agricultural products

4. Also Pakistani Industrial products should be doing well, possibly even Defense Articles, like the FC-1

5. Possible Major tourim in kashmir, after the rebuilding, and the simpathy visits by the worlds people, and especially after the government's dissions to allow major tourism, this could lead to alot of maoney from visits to the "Alpes of the East"

6. The Oil Shipping through Pipelines

7. Pakistan's Resourses finally getting utilized through FDI

8. And Last But Not Least GWADAR
[right][snapback]738934[/snapback][/right]

umm isnt that taking a very simplistic view of the situation cuz future growth projections need to calculated using compounded growth rate instead of simply adding the percentages up.

I.E. if Pak. GDP is 100 Bn. Dollars today and grows by lets say 10% this year. Then the economy's size becomes 110 bn and the calculations for next year are based on this 110 bn. amount and not 100bn. Going on this trajectory all ur calculations r wrong. I read somewhere they predicted the GDP around $400 Bn. in 10-20 years. dont remember exactly. u do the math.

faz101

Feb 22 2006, 02:47 PM

growth depends on a lot more in the long run. if you want steady and solid growth then the govt. needs to get more tough on healthcare and education reforms. i'm not in pakistan anymore so i don't know where the govt. is on this one.

gwadar isn't going to start affecting anything for atleast a few yrs until the port facilities are properly up and running and the situation in balochistan is better. if there's chinese engineers dying in the area then no one is going to be willing to invest there and you will lose out on any deals that could have been made.

also ISI, more importantly then defence products the firms inside pakistan have to start making high-quality consumer goods that they can then export. labour is cheap in pakistan so they should be investing more aggressively in order to make and sell electrical and other goods on the international markets.

the monetary authorities will also need to be vigilant in case a stock market bubble starts to appear. the last thing we need is another false start due to exuberance leading to investment in dud projects.

but above all else i still think the govt needs to concentrate on healthcare, education and controlling the situation in balochistan.

PakiPatriot

Feb 22 2006, 09:39 PM

the biggest hurdle for Pakistan in the near future is to resolve the Balochistan issue in such a way as that it doesnt cause any further problems in the future. Pakistan's economy is at best, going to stall unless peace and civility is restored into the whole country.

second thing is that over the long-run, maybe 10-20 years, Pakistan is going to have to change from a labor-based economy to a capital-based economy. the output per labor needs to increase. and at the center of this is education. your capital increases if you have an educated and capable workforce.

over the short-run, Pakistan has to reduce the trade deficit, has to get rid of the budget deficit, and balance the rates of growth and inflation.

Nauman

Mar 2 2006, 02:31 AM

Unless you educate common man in Pakistan you are not going to go anywhere, you may see a few more tall structures but the foundations of the whole economy are very weak because only a handfull of people are running the economy right now. Untill and unless base ie. poor and middle class becomes stronger and is educated this growth rate would be superficial. After seeing the reaction of people in the protests I have lost all hope of Pakistan ever becomming a developed economy. Its one thing to be angry about an issue but to burn down your own house because of that is stupidity of the highest order.