There are many that would say that the size of a future economy can not easily be determined due to many factors, inflation, interest rates, taxes, imports/exports, fdi, and even natural disasters which would affect the economy. However due to the transparent and consistent policies of the current government I believe Its fair to specualte on what the economy and general outlook of the economy should be by 2012 if Musharraf gets a second term (I'm sure he will).

Pakistan Economic Overview 2006:

Population:
165,803,560 (July 2006 est.)

GDP (Nominal):
$119.79 billion (2006 est.)

GDP (Per Capita Nominal):
$769 (2006 est.)

Exports:
$14.85 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)

Imports:
$21.26 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold:
$11.71 billion (2005 est.)

FDI:
$3 billion (2005 est.)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbo...ields/2046.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...nal)_per_capita

Pakistan Economic Overview 2012

Population:
215,103,560 (July 2012 est.)

GDP (Nominal):
$268 billion (2012 est.)

GDP (Per Capita Nominal):
$1250 (2012 est.)

Exports:
$67.85 billion f.o.b. (2012 est.)

Imports:
$51.36 billion f.o.b. (2012 est.)

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold:
$67.71 billion (2012 est.)

FDI:
$5.5 billion (Minimum yearly from 2007-2012 est.)


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GDP (per capita) is worthless unless inflation is stable...

where did you get the 2012 estimates from?

what assumptions are they based on?

Pakistan Economic Overview 2012

Population:
215,103,560 (July 2012 est.)

Based on 3.5% annual increase in population (Please note that I have Increased the population growth rate to compensate for any increases in birth rate, The current Birth rate is around 2.0%)

GDP (Nominal):
$268 billion (2012 est.)

GDP (Per Capita Nominal):
$1250 (2012 est.)

$260 000 000 000 / 215 000 000 =~ $1250

Exports:
$67.85 billion f.o.b. (2012 est.)

Pakistan is set to double its exports every 3 years, So if its $15bn this year, 2009 will have $30bn and 2012 will probably have around $60-$70bn exports)

Imports:
$51.36 billion f.o.b. (2012 est.)

Imports will be less than exports, meaning Pakistan will have a trade surplus of around $16bn in 2012

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold:
$67.71 billion (2012 est.)

FDI:
$5.5 billion (Minimum yearly from 2007-2012 est.)

Please note that ive thought about these figures alot, Infact ive even calculated that Pakistan should have even 21 million fixed line telephone connections and 11 million internet connections (not users) out of which 5.5 million would be broadband connections, and thats just the fixed line telecoms sectors not even counting the cellular market or all the other industries in the country from fishing to nuclear energy. The stats I provided are my assesment of what Pakistan's 2012 economy should look like, but they are backed up by government plans.

i wish it would be same as u mentioned...but export target for 2010 is above 30bn USD...i doubt it would reach 60bn USD till 2012...forex reserve 67BnUSD in just next six years...re-think about it.......GDP would be arround 200+ bn USD. and about FDI...hmm...i wish it would be the same as u predicted

The guys figures are totally whacko. Pak's current GDP is c. $110bn by EIU and SBP report and $90bn by CIA factbook.

Only IMF via Wiki says $119bn. But where is the IMF link itself?

I accessed the IMF site, but cannot find a databox for Pakistan within the Pakistan section.

Can anyone post the relevant URL?

nice sentiments but the figures don't add up and the assumptions are over-optimistic.

the population growth at 3.5% per year is quite high. The population growth is on a downward trend not upwards and stands at about 1.9-2%.

the exports have doubled over the last 6 years. In 2000 the exports were around $8 billion, now they are around $17 billion. thats every 5-6 years. at that rate exports will be around the $35 billion mark.

imports are racing ahead of exports, even if thats due to capital expenditure and the rate is to come down i do not see a trade surplus at least for the next 3-4 years.

GDP at the moment is around $110 billion. At a rate of 6% average growth it will take around 10 years for GDP to aggregate at $200 billion or there abouts.


i think you need to revise these figures dude. you seem way off.

We should have controlled our birth rate back in the 1980s to 1990s it was far to high otherwise we would have had GDP per capita greater than $1300 as of 2006. Birth rate is our big problem we must control it otherwise increase in GDP wont make any differance.

215 million population from 165mil in 6 year?
Thats a growth of 50 mil people which is about 30% more then what our population is right now.
Dont you think thats a bit extreme, with a burst of population like that it will be very difficult to reach a per capita income of $1200 and if the per capita income was $1200 at that population then the GDP should be much higher.

The Cia world factbook is very outdated for developing country's.Pakistans exports by 2012 will likly be alittle over 40 billion imports about 30 billion.FDI would be higher at around 7-10 billion population would also be less at a little over 200 million.Other important factors should also be taken into this data such as gas prices and most imporatantly Gwadar

akimatsuri,

i appreciate your sentiments mate but as some of the other members have told you the figures are very optimistic on many fronts. inflation is one thing which you haven't accounted for at all, inflation in pakistan is currently around the 8-9% mark and is expected to get higher. this will lead to a downturn in investment and consumption. it'll raise nominal GDP but actually decrease real GDP (GDP after having accounted for inflation in the economy).

it's very hard to estimate figures like these even for professional economists so you shouldn't feel bad about this. on the contrary i think you've made some good effort in calculating these figures. like you yourself said these figures don't account for any change in events and we all now how volatile that region is on any given day.

my 2 cents,

faz101.

Yes true...Only allah knows whatll lie for the future of pakistans economy

Exports can be doubled in 3 years

: Musharraf: Pakistan crosses $10.4bn mark

KARACHI, June 13: President Gen Pervez Musharraf on Friday said Pakistan could double its export earnings every three or four years if it was able to maintain the momentum of foreign trade, which translates into a 20 per cent increase every year.

He said this while speaking as the chief guest at a function held to mark the crossing of 10-billion-dollar mark in exports for the first time in Pakistan’s history, besides marking the achievement of the current year’s export target of $10.4 billion.

The president marked the occasion by pushing a button to load a container onto a vessel.

He said that by the end of the current fiscal year, the country’s exports would reach $11 billion.

“Such an achievement will be a short cut for poverty alleviation and improving the standard of living as well as the economic revival of the country ... I see a bright future. We have to put our acts together”, the president remarked.

The president stressed the need for making a textile-oriented growth in exports a part of the medium-term strategy instead of making it part of a long-term strategy.

Enunciating guidelines for the long-term strategy, he said for the exports to reach beyond $20 billion, major contribution would have to come from the engineering sector, including — chemicals, pharmaceutical and information technology.

He asked the minister for commerce and the chairman of Exports Promotion Bureau to devise export plans to enhance the country’s engineering products.

He said that exports should be a major consideration when formulating monetary and exchange rate policies.

Gen Musharraf directed the finance ministry to maintain vigilance, saying that any fiscal and credit policy should not create liquidity problems for exports.

Stressing the need to avoid red-tapism, he said that exporters should never be made to run around for duty drawbacks and rebate while tariff and taxation policies should ensure the domestic industry’s competitiveness.

Pledging to provide better facilities to the export sector, he said that he would be personally involved in this regard.

“We must set our targets high and move on a planned strategy”, he stated.

Gen. Musharraf urged the planners to set the long-term export target at $50 billion, while saying that the next years export target should not be less than $13 billion.

Stressing the need to exploit the potential in terms of manpower as well as natural and human resources, he said: “We can go a long way. The question is how.

How do we ensure that the achievements of these two years in exports is maintained and further consolidated”, Gen. Musharraf added.

He also called for stronger public-private partnership to achieve competitiveness in the global market.—APP


http://www.dawn.com/2003/06/14/top1.htm

$67bn in exports and forex is easily acheivable by 2012; Musharraf has himself said there that he plans to double exports every 3 years, So if our current exports are $15bn, 2008 we will export $30bn, and 2012 $60bn +.

I'm very suprised by the pessemism of many Pakistani members here with regard to Pakistan's economy, the fact of the matter is that the average Pakistani is richer, healthier, better fed and paid today than any Pakistani has had it previously, All the economic indicatators coming out from sbp and wb/imf all show that Pakistan has and is making great strides, Im sure I dont need to remind you people of the kind of industrial growth we are seeing, Double digits, Also dont forget the privatization process which is progressing very nicely and drawing large capital from the middle east.

my forecasts might be optimistic, but unlike some here they are not pessimistic; Optimistic yes, but achieveable!

Musharaf is talking out of his ass
Dont look at the figures he says we SHOULD have. it's highly speculative. look at official figures. i dont see Pakistan having a trade surplus anytime soon.

Incase your having difficulty reading this entire thread is 'speculative'

yes your highness....but Musharaf ALWAYS paints a very rosy picture, which is more than realistic. if you are gonna be SPECULATING, please dont speculate with numbers which are highly suspect, and very speculative. not to mention that those numbers are CREATED for the uneducated masses of Pakistan, who many times are incapable of adding 2 and 2.

there's nothing wrong with speculation, but it should be based on reasonable figures. most of all, it should make sense, given the constraint of time.

Yes I agree with you and let me correct you pakistans export target for this year is 18-20 billion so by 2009 it will be 36-40 billion and by 2012 72-80 billion which will still be very little for a nation in 2012.

We pakistani's need to be optimistic of our future and need to stop blaming our politicians.We need to end corruption and need to look out for our own nation.Look at indians they say they will be super power and are very optimistic and are setting huge long term goals.Pakistan needs to do the same

Remember increased imports of machinery, capital goods etc put a positive trend on export and higher such imports last year the more the increase in grwoth rate of exports nex year and when the country gets developed it all pays back and exports increase greteter than imports.

An increasing imports of capital goods means pakistan is developing and when the imporst get to go down it means pakistan has started to become developed