India likely to reach $1 trillion GDP by next year
Central bank official estimates 9% growth for current fiscal year
ReutersPublished: February 25, 2007
AGRA, India: India's economy is set to expand at a sustained 9 percent annual rate or above and is likely to reach the $1 trillion mark by the next financial year, according to a deputy governor of its central bank.
Asia's fourth largest economy has grown at an average pace of over 8 percent in the last three years and is due to expand at 9.2 percent in the current fiscal year ending in March.
This will be the country's fastest growth in almost two decades, underlining its growing clout in the world economy as manufacturing and service firms power ahead.
"The government has released an estimate of 9.2 percent for this year. There is clearly an upward movement toward sustained growth of 9 percent as expressed officially," Rakesh Mohan told a conference in the northern Indian city on Saturday.
"We should be a trillion dollar economy by next year. I mean 2007/08."
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World Bank data show that at the end of 2005 only nine economies had a gross domestic product of more than $1 trillion, with Brazil, South Korea and India the next closest at over $800 billion.
The Indian government wants to raise sustainable growth to 9 percent and beyond in order to spread wealth to the 260 million poor and generate revenue to bring down its large fiscal deficit.
Thanks to strong growth over the past few years, India's stubbornly high fiscal deficit has come down to a manageable level of around 4 percent of GDP from highs of 6 percent.
Analysts say the deficit may be as low as 3.6 percent of GDP, down from 4.1 percent in 2005/06, due to higher-than- expected tax revenues in the fiscal year to March 31.
India's national and state governments are bound by a fiscal responsibility law to bring down their deficits to 3 percent each by 2008/09, which analysts say is achievable.
"It is a major improvement that will take place to move to those targets," Mohan said. "But even by international standards 6 percent combined deficit is high."
India is trying to tidy up its finances and free funds for projects to create jobs and promote sustainable economic growth.
However, the red-hot pace is straining infrastructure and leading to a squeeze on capacity, which is fueling inflation, now at a two-year high above 6.5 percent.