PAKISTAN AFTER GENERAL MUSHARRAF
Strategic, Political, Economic and Social Perspectives
March 14, 2007.
I know some of my fellow PDF members are going to question my patriotism now, however, I would like to assure that I am just pondering over the effects on various fronts should our beloved and patriotic General be disposed off in a cerimonious or uncerimonious manner in the near future. So here goes.
The winds of change are once again picking up pace and the political weather forecast is cloudy with electric storms in the near future.
Numerous factors have accumulated including but not limited to some of the following:
- Pakistan's dismal role in fighting / restraining Taliban forces in its frontier region;
- Pakistan's outright official rejection of unofficial US request to use Pakistani space to launch attacks on Iran;
- Continuous recent communication between General Musharraf and the Irani President;
- Sacking of the Chief Justice of Pakistan;
- Pakistan's renewed covert support for Taliban and the recent attack on Dick Cheney;
Even as the US Congress is repositioning over support to Pakistan's military establishment, President General Pervez Musharraf has suspended the chief justice of the Supreme Court. Iftikhar Chaudhary faces allegations of abuse of power, but the more likely reason for his suspension is that the chief justice's judicial activism was beginning to challenge the military elite. Chaudhary has been declared "non-functional" and placed under virtual house arrest pending a scheduled appearance before a special judicial court on Tuesday. Javed Iqbal, the second-senior-most judge, has been sworn in as acting chief justice.
The move against Chaudhary has prompted widespread disapproval, with the opposition expressing outrage and lawyers and other segments of civil society adding their voices to the chorus. There have also been calls for strikes and protest marches, and the Musharraf-led government faces one of its stiffest challenges since the general seized power in a bloodless coup on October 12, 1999.
Pakistan is due to have presidential elections this year, and Musharraf will seek re-election even though, despite his promises, he still wears a uniform. Pakistan is often referred to as a country where "the government is of the army, by the army and for the army". Musharraf is both president and chief of army staff.
Chaudhary Shujaat Hussain, the president of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League and a former prime minister, commented that the action over Chaudhary was "an internal matter of the Pakistan Army and the judiciary". Chaudhary was appointed by Musharraf in 2005, and Musharraf, wearing his uniform, announced the news of the judge's "misconduct" after the two had had a five-hour meeting on Friday.
This follows extensive media coverage of Chaudhary's son joining the police service despite apparently having failed an English-language entrance paper and of the top judge's alleged abuse of travel privileges, among other accusations. Nevertheless, what is more likely to have brought Chaudhary down is that he was bold enough to try to make the military elite answerable in the court of law.
Thousands of people are believed to have been thrown into secret detention facilities in Pakistan without ever being brought to trial, especially those rounded up in the name of the "war on terror". Many of the detentions have occurred in the restive province of Balochistan, where Pakistan's Military Intelligence has picked up hundreds of youths suspected of affiliation with the separatist and shadowy Baloch Liberation Army. In the past, relatives of the missing people filed complaints with the courts, which then formally informed the Interior Ministry. Routinely, the ministry would simply advise that the intelligence agencies were unaware of a person's whereabouts, and the files would gather dust.
Chaudhary changed this trend. He followed up cases diligently and frequently issued warnings to the attorney general to take action. He also made sure that an army officer serving in the influential Crisis Management Cell appeared to answer for the intelligence forces. As a result, some missing people returned home, and they quickly accused the intelligence agencies of detaining them. Chaudhary ordered all of these agencies to appear in court to face the charges.
Last year, Chaudhary prevented the government from selling off the majority of state-owned Pakistan Steel Mills to a private consortium, claiming that kickbacks were involved at the highest level in the privatization process of the country's biggest corporation.
The event has given the much-scattered opposition the opportunity to mobilize. Pashtun nationalist leader and parliamentarian Mehmood Khan Achkzai has called for a strike on Tuesday in Quetta, the capital of Balochistan. Transporters in North West Frontier Province have made a similar call. Qazi Hussain Ahmed, the president of the six-party opposition religious alliance, the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal, has called for an all-party conference to devise a single joint strategy for Tuesday, when Chaudhary is due for his hearing.
Domestic turmoil of this kind will provide a test for the White House, which up to now has stood by its ally in the "war on terror" despite Islamabad repeatedly backsliding on promises on democratic change. The Democrat-controlled US Congress is expected to be a bit less tolerant, and might even try to block a deal for the supply of F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan.
It is estimated that the United States currently provides military assistance worth US$100 million a month to Pakistan, and since 2001, when Musharraf turned against the Taliban in Afghanistan, the country has received some $20 billion in assorted aid.
With the US administration becoming increasingly frustrated with Musharraf's apparent slow progress against al-Qaeda and the Taliban and with the Democrats looking for excuses to distance Washington from Islamabad, the Chaudhary incident comes at a bad time for Musharraf.
All this coupled with the recent media leaks (NYTimes) from high ranking Congressmen that the State Department is considering the pros and cons of an "After Musharraf" scenario supports the cloudy weather forecast.
Hence this topic. Started with the objective of pondering over the impact on Pakistan's Strategic, Political, Economic and Social environment should our beloved General be somehow removed from both his positions of President and COA.
Logical comments are invited backed by sound reasoning and basis.