QUOTE(MirBadshah @ May 22 2007, 12:50 PM) [snapback]906387[/snapback]
You are half right and half wrong, yes we can not have an open trade with India, but controlled trade have no harm, we are strenghtening our agiculture base and need outside market for export, India is suffering from worst shortage of food items, we can export the extra produce to them, at the same time we can import some steel and things like that to ease our local prices in construction sector.
What is ultimately going to happen we all know, we can never be friends and end of the day we have to get in to an ugly war because of Indian policies and hindu extremist mind set, but at least feed them before that happens.
controlled trade is just a beginning. time will come when the controls will erode and trade will become more or less open. but that would take time. sections of pakistani business could really benefit from trade with india just as indian trade would. a close example is how sri lankan tea, pepper and cardamom have flooded indian market and lowered the prices. despite the protests from indian farmers, it is a fact and they have to develop ingenious ways like diversification to the survive and flourish. of course, bangladeshi and sri lankan industries have to contend with cheap indian automobiles and three-wheelers. but that is the how trade works. indian outsourcing companies are opending in colombo and dhaka and even as far as manila, distributing a slice of the multibillion outsourcing pie. why not pakistan benefit?
you are right, mir, pakistan can import steel, cement etc if there is a price differential. as u said india is importing wheat and sugar to control domestic prices. that is reciprocity.
as you can see the global economy has both india and pakistan in its stranglehold and no country can any longer chart its own territory independently. the 1980s when india began accepting massive world bank loans, india got integrated and its only time when full rupee convertibility comes into being. the conservatives can only delay, not prevent that. and just like india, which despite its size and resources, failed to stem the tide, pakistan has also succumbed. economic restructuring for pakistan is already a fact. i do not believe anybody can say that once the west will not extract its pound of flesh for the massive aid in whatever name (war on terror etc...) it pumped into pakistan. pressure to denationalise etc is an outcome of that and even iftikhar chaudhry, whatever his ideological leanings, will be able to block that in the long term. if he comes to power... at the end of long domestic unrest, he will also have to toe the line. patriotism etc are just lofty words and global economics does not think much of it.
the indian situation is not different. the privatization zeal of the rightwing bjp is famous.
i do not believe it a coincidence that more and more south asian countries have non-career politicians at the helm.. like musharraf and shaukat aziz in pakistan, singh and abdul kalam in india. that makes it easier for the west to control the economies.. though not overtly.
my point is that there is hardly any possiblity for any economy to remain insulated. look, even the massive chinese economy has to keep showing from time to time that it intends to open up in near future, though it dos not matter when it really does that.
in india, there is always a debate who next after infumbent pm. even when the man/woman on the saddle is it his/her peak, the debate does go on. i believe it to be a healthy aspect of any polity. and eventually, more people in pakistan will begin talking about who after musharraf. its juvenile to shut out any such throughts. trade reforms will also go hand in hand with that.