a smaller wheat crop is expected in Pakistan this year. Output is forecast at one million tonnes less than last year’s record, reflecting a reduced area due to sowing delays, less availability of irrigation water and high fertilizer prices. However, output could still be 5.3 percent higher than the five-year average. The price of wheat in Pakistan remains lower than in neighbouring countries, so that wheat (flour) is being smuggled out of the country domestic food prices are increasing as a result.
Pakistan cereal production ( million tonnes)
Wheat
2006 21.7
2007 22.5
estim. 2008 22.0yes this is true picture that smaller wheat crop is expected in 2008, while SA announces that super bumper crop will be in 2007 while he knows that it will not be just to export wheat to get profit ? or it was his incompetency but in 2007 actual wheat prod was not even 22.
Pakistan (2007-06-01)
http://www.fao.org/giews/ENGLISH/countryupdates/0607e/02.aspHarvesting of the 2007 winter wheat is complete in the main wheat-growing provinces. A record production of some 23 million tones is anticipated, as a result of increased use of fertilizers, following Government’s subsidies, and favourable weather. Given the increase in domestic wheat supplies expected, the country is expected to export some 1.5 million tonnes of wheat in 2007/08.
The planting of the paddy crop just started and 2007 paddy production is tentatively forecast at some 8.4 million tonnes. The 2007 coarse grains output, mostly maize, is forecast at some 3.5 million tonnes. Pakistan is one of world major rice exporters and the 2007 export is forecast at some 3 million tonnes.
http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/j9247e/j9247e06.htmthis shows natural climate was ok but very supportive also :
In Pakistan, prospects for the 2007 wheat crop have improved as the arrival of rain and snow in December increased irrigation reserves. Current indications suggest that the 2007 output may equal last year’s bumper crop.
these are actually figure taken by UN deptt from govt deptt which proofs that Govt set target at 23 or+ MT of wheat prod.
**Pakistan will need to import 500,000 tons to 1 million tons,'' said Farhan Rizvi, economist at JS Capital Markets Ltd. in Karachi. ``The country may just meet its domestic needs but if we account for smuggling, we will need to import.now come to how much actually they achieved and how much they present it to public and institutions:
http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=5874...rm=&supDateISLAMABAD (July 06 2007): The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (Minfal) is facing embarrassment due to unreliable wheat output statistics as some of the policy makers are contesting the production figures of 23.5 million tonnes.
Business Recorder on Thursday interviewed some government officials and private sector individuals who were unanimous that the actual wheat production was about 21 million tonnes but the government projected it at 23.5 million apparently to show GDP growth of 7.02 per cent in 2006-07."
Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, in his speech to the National Economic Council (NEC) on May 31, said that production of wheat was 23.523 million tonnes, the highest ever in the country. "I am a witness to it that last year one million tonne wheat was added in the overall wheat production figures just on telephone call to improve the GDP growth figures," claimed one of the top official on condition of anonymity.
He was of the view that this year too the same technique was used to show that GDP growth has surpassed 7 percent, which was earlier projected at 6.5 percent......
again explain overstatement by Govt: i dont want to comment why???
this was in sept 2007....
http://www.dawn.com/2007/09/19/top10.htmInformed government sources said the wheat production estimates were increased to 23.5 million tons in order to achieve a 7 per cent GDP (gross domestic product) growth target for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2007.
“If the difference of 1.3 million tons between the government’s original estimates and the TCP’s estimate is taken into account, the GDP growth rate for fiscal year 2006-07 would tumble down perhaps to 6.5 per cent or even less,” says a retired government official who served for years as a member of the National Accounts Committee.
Govt set target at 23 MT and annouced that they have achieved it and they just exported it with out 2nd thought than later thay come to know ohhhhh it was 21+MT not 23 MT it was typo mistake so now we are shot of 15 MT from our own consumption.
just to inform you about achievement of Your liked one Mr Aziz this is from his own collegues in interm Govt cabinate :
http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=12541ISLAMABAD: In a shocking development, the interim government headed by Muhammadmian Soomro has expressed no-confidence in the figures firmed up by the Shaukat Aziz government about various major economic indicators such as the GDP growth, major crops produce, inflation, poverty, and industrial data.
Quite disturbed with the flour crisis, energy crisis, and the economic data of FBS, particularly food inflation, employment and poverty figures, which mostly do not match with ground realities, Prime Minister Muhammadmian Soomro has constituted a high-powered committee to ascertain the accuracy, reliability and credibility of the data gathered by the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS).
"The economy about which the previous government used to make tall claims was exposed in the four-day wheel jam strike after the assassination of Ms Bhutto and the government has been compelled to readjust all economic indicators," a senior government official told The News.
Cereal stocks set to fall to 25-year low
Unchanged from the previous forecast in February, world cereal stocks by the close of the seasons ending in 2008 are expected to fall to 405 million tonnes, down 21 million tonnes, or 5 percent, from their already reduced level at the start of the season and the smallest in 25 years. At this level, the ratio of world cereal stocks to utilization falls to 18.8 percent, down 6 percent from the previous low in 2006/07. World wheat stocks by the close of seasons in 2008 are forecast at 144 million tonnes, down 9 percent from their already reduced opening level. The sharp decline is even more notable in major exporting countries, with their combined wheat reserves falling by as much as 10 million tonnes. Strong demand in domestic and world markets has contributed to the depletion of stocks in major exporting countries where production in 2007 suffered from exceptionally poor yields. Even in the United States, where wheat output increased in 2007, stocks are expected to fall to 8 million tonnes, 4 million tonnes less than the already reduced level last season. Larger exports are mostly responsible for this reduction in stock in the United States. Inventories in the EU are forecast to drop to 9.5 million tonnes, more than 3 million tonnes below the previous season’s low, a reduction that is mainly caused by a sharp production shortfall in 2007.1- we are not among larger exporters for atleast wheat coz of un predictable production track and due to stagnant production capacity of wheat during last 7 years.
2- I know i think i have little idea about demand and supply but Shaukat Aziz never had otherwise he had not exported wheat by showing manipulated figures.
i told you he was not economist he was banker these two are different things. grow up.
khawarkhan rather than the usual RANT (SA and Mush is following his master BUSH, BLAH BLAH BLAH) please enlighten all of us, which policies you would like the government to pursue and how these would have made the situation better.See atta crises are due to poor management and loose control of law enforcement agencies: wheat to india is impossible to smuggle, and smuggling to Afghanistan is low but atta smuggling to Afghanistan is high coz they dont have mills to produce atta from wheat. where as china nearly impossible without approval of authorities Iran yes possible but again major threat for smuggling is to Afghanistan whch i thing again is not big issue if we are willing to control.
another big issue is to set prices support prices as we have lowest price in region than there are ample chances of hoardings for smugglings and by enforcing strict law we can reduce artificial shortage.
How we can improve economy inshallah i can give you some valued points also i think today not possible tommorow inshallah
regards