WASHINGTON: The reason why India issued a thinly-veiled threat to Pakistan after its nuclear test in 1998 was to make sure that Pakistan follows suit so that India is not singled out for international pressure, according to a nuclear expert.

Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Stimson Centre, wrote in the journal, Arms Control: “When India finally decided to test, it was almost a foregone conclusion that Pakistan would also test. When New Delhi obliged on May 11 and 13, no inducements or penalties the United States and other capitals could identify were powerful enough to prevent Pakistan from following suit. Just to make sure that Pakistan would reject US offers and to prevent India from being singled out for international pressure, Advani issued a thinly veiled public threat to the effect that now that New Delhi possessed the bomb, its neighbour should watch its step in Kashmir. Pakistan tested its nuclear devices on May 28.”

Krepon writes that 10 years later, India and Pakistan still have not accepted any constraints on their strategic autonomy. Along with China, both states are engaged in strategic modernisation programmes of considerable breadth, building nuclear-tipped cruise missiles as well as ballistic missiles to be carried by their land, sea, and air forces.

Plans: India has plans for a deterrent it deems worthy of a major power, which might entail further tests to certify thermonuclear weapon designs. If India tests again, Pakistan is likely to do so as well. The nuclear enclaves in each county are highly respected at home and believe they have more work to do. This spells trouble not only for the CTBT, but also for initiating and successfully concluding fissile material cut-off negotiations in Geneva.

Kepon argues that while the CTBT remains in limbo, India and Pakistan have agreed to several confidence-building and nuclear risk-reduction measures, such as notifications regarding certain missile flight tests and military exercises. After a period of domestic turbulence in Pakistan, these discussions will resume, perhaps yielding more agreements that reduce the possibility of unintended escalation. Each country is focused on trade, economic development, and domestic cohesion, which suggest that the divided territory of Kashmir, which Pakistani officials used to describe as a “nuclear flashpoint,” will remain calm. These important gains are unlikely to be supplemented by constructive initiatives by India and Pakistan relating to nuclear negotiations.


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Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Stimson Centre, wrote in the journal, Arms Control: “When India finally decided to test, it was almost a foregone conclusion that Pakistan would also test. When New Delhi obliged on May 11 and 13, no inducements or penalties the United States and other capitals could identify were powerful enough to prevent Pakistan from following suit. Just to make sure that Pakistan would reject US offers and to prevent India from being singled out for international pressure, Advani issued a thinly veiled public threat to the effect that now that New Delhi possessed the bomb, its neighbour should watch its step in Kashmir. Pakistan tested its nuclear devices on May 28.”

The manner in which Michael Krepon unfolds the events, I think the whole world wanted Pakistani to do a nuclear explosion as since 1994 we were under nuclear related sanctions and India even after explosion was not immediately put hard sanctions. In fact even after the whole issue India was only put under sanctions once sanctions were imposed on Pakistan at the time of Pakistani doing tit for tat.

I think the new US / India deals is also in a way wanting Pakistan to explore further nuclear agreements with our best friends China !

Jeez .. these days anybody can become a anaylst or founder of centres !

It was actually more to do with the world powers wanting Pakistan to explode and therefore Pakistan had no option left but to explode.

Pakistan still had the option not to explode had its requirements such as membership at NATO and a few other gurantees were met.

So it wasnt really India but western countries that are responsible for Pakistan to go OFFICIALLY NUCLEAR.

Ok I have something to ask.

I know for sure that zulfiqar bhutto would have done the test without thinking twice. well frankly i cant expect anything else from that moron. BB would have given up to foreign pressure. She never had the back bone to stand up to any kind of foreign pressure.

Now the real interesting question is that we know from all the experience with Mush time that (in my opinion) he also would have given up the test to stay in power. But what really makes me wonder

"What would Zia do for a Nuke test?".

if he was here, would he let go of the test just to put the indians into trouble? would he have taken all the money and aid for not doing the test and would do the test 2 3 months down.

Frankly our other leaders did not have the political wisdom in foreign affairs and PR and many were short sighted if they had a sight to begin with. Mush, BB and zulfiqar don't fall into the group that is quite predictable and frankly no matter how much you guys hate it this is the truth. Now unlike these guy, we have seen all kind of unexpectedness from Zia. He pulled the pulled the maneuvers in foreign affairs that left the others baffled. So

"What would have Zia done?", tested or no test.

Z.Bhutto would have done the test on India. And he was brilliant , a man of high calibre and one of Pakistan's best prime ministers.

Mushy would have done just as any other leader (guts or no guts). The pressure that India had mounted after May 13th was so enormous that the only way out of it was a test. India actually had also insinuated at the time of even going in to AK.

As for Mushy .. well in an interview few years ago he was asked this very question by a BBC (or was it CNN) interviewer. Now you would think that Mushy would like to say that he wouldn't have just to get more cozy in the eyes of west but to my surprise he not only gave a straight answer but was very blunt and also went on to justify it through reason.

May 28th was an extremely happy day for any Pakistani and the jubilation and pride we had in ourselves that day was simply unprecedented. It was a result of refusal by US to guarantee our security and thus no Pakistani leader would have done the reverse in the circumstances. Mind you an option that often gets neglected is if Military had taken over the govt. if govt. had cringed, an option that would have been muich more defendable and praiseworthy in the eyes of the nation than the Oct 12th episode.

As for "India made us do it to avoid sanctions". Its utter bullshit. First of nobody imposed sanctions on India after May 13th (and were actually imposed after May 28th when Pakistan carried out) a clear indication that Indian tests would have gone in without a severe impunity if Pakistan had not tested. The whole world pressured Pakistan not to test and none of them actually imposed a solid sanction on India (to show Pakistan that they really mean business). Also its interesting that world powers behaved "shocked" after Indian tests, but none of their satellites detected the "hole digging" in Rajhastan (wow). Finally the sanctions on India were removed quiet early and the same didn't happen for Pakistan ( since "we had a military ruler"). Just goes on to show the double dealing of the West.

As for "India made us do it to avoid sanctions". Its utter bullshit. First of nobody imposed sanctions on India after May 13th (and were actually imposed after May 28th when Pakistan carried out) a clear indication that Indian tests would have gone in without a severe impunity if Pakistan had not tested. The whole world pressured Pakistan not to test and none of them actually imposed a solid sanction on India (to show Pakistan that they really mean business). Also its interesting that world powers behaved "shocked" after Indian tests, but none of their satellites detected the "hole digging" in Rajhastan (wow). Finally the sanctions on India were removed quiet early and the same didn't happen for Pakistan ( since "we had a military ruler"). Just goes on to show the double dealing of the West.

Complete Supremacy : Truth to the core.