Pakistan's Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 30 Years (Update2) By Farhan Sharif
LinkJune 11 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan's consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in at least 30 years in May as food costs jumped and record government borrowing to fund a widening budget deficit flooded the economy with cash.
Inflation in South Asia's second-largest economy accelerated to 19.27 percent from 17.2 percent in April, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said in Islamabad today. Prices rose 2.69 percent in May from the previous month.
``Inflationary pressures are being fuelled by the large build up of monetary assets on account of heavy government budgetary borrowing,'' said Sayem Ali, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Karachi. ``An expansionary fiscal stance will lead to continued buildup of inflation pressures.''
The government has been relying on loans from the State Bank of Pakistan to fund its budget shortfall, which Finance Minister Naveed Qamar yesterday said reached a 10-year high of about 7 percent of gross domestic product in the 12 months to June 30. The central bank last week said that borrowing trend ``cannot be sustained'' without further stoking inflation.
Governor Shamshad Akhtar on May 23 raised the central bank's benchmark interest rate for a second time this year, increasing borrowing costs to 12 percent from 10.5 percent.
``We are spending today more than we can afford,'' Akhtar said after the unexpected rate rise. Government borrowings this fiscal year had already reached a ``very high'' level of 9 percent of GDP, she added.
`Excess Liquidity'
The State Bank of Pakistan lent the government 551 billion rupees ($8.2 billion) from July 1 through May 10 to finance its deficit, twice the amount borrowed during the preceding three years, according to central bank estimates.
``Record rates of debt monetization by the Finance Ministry has contributed to excess liquidity in the system,'' said Zainab Jabbar, an analyst at IGI Securities in Karachi. ``With inflation on the uptick, the government should have anticipated further monetary tightening in 2008 and consequently striven to tighten its belt rather than indulge in fiscal loosening.''
Pakistan's first civilian government since a 1999 military coup says it wants to narrow the budget deficit to 4.7 percent of GDP next fiscal year, even as the administration is expected to today announce an increase in salaries for civil servants and more handouts to the poor.
Rice, Potatoes
Prices for food and beverages surged 28.48 percent in May from a year earlier, according to today's report. That was the fastest pace in at least 15 years, according to data compiled by JS Global Capital Ltd. in Karachi. The price of rice increased 35.82 percent and the cost off potatoes was 28.26 higher than a year earlier.
``It seems the government is not fully passing on international fuel price rises in order to avoid immediate inflationary and political pressure,'' said Farhan Rizvi, an economist at JS Global Capital.
Pakistan, which imports about 85 percent of the oil it uses, increased prices of gasoline for the first time in more than 22 months on Feb. 29 after record crude prices increased import costs for the nation's refiners. Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority, the regulator, has since raised prices three more times.
The trade deficit widened to $1.9 billion in May from $1.1 billion because of the rising oil import bill, the statistics bureau said yesterday.
Pakistan's two-month-old government has fractured after former premier Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League and the party's nine ministers quit the cabinet in a dispute over the reinstatement of judges sacked by President Pervez Musharraf last year. Sharif agreed to share power with the Pakistan Peoples Party of assassinated opposition leader Benazir Bhutto after parliamentary elections in February.
To contact the reporter on this story: Farhan Sharif in Karachi at fsharif2@bloomberg.net.