Pakistan
With a population of around 175m, which is growing annually at 2.2%, Pakistan offers the second largest domestic market in South Asia after India. Figures from the Asian Development Bank show that per capita income had risen fairly steadily in the previous two decades to reach Pakistani Rupee26 231 (US$475) in 2002.
However, economists point out that Pakistan lags behind countries with comparable per capita income on most social indicators. For instance, the literacy level in Pakistan is only 44% compared with an average 64% for comparable countries. Poverty is a major issue as around 33% of the population is estimated to be poor. Importantly, the differences in per capita income across various regions in Pakistan have persisted or widened over the years, says the World Bank.
But the reforms initiated by President Pervez Musharraf after he came to power through a military coup in October 1999 have earned kudos for the country.
According to Moody's Investors Service, a positive turnaround has taken place in the Pakistani economy over the past five years. The agency assigned a B2 rating to Pakistan's 5-year Eurobond issue in early February. This issue marks the country's return to the capital market since it restructured all previous eurobonds and floating rate notes at the insistence of creditors in December 1999.
Moody's also pointed out that the economy had responded positively to macroeconomic reform and stabilisation. The country had seen an improvement in its liquidity position thanks to ample external assistance, faster export growth and a pickup in overseas workers' remittances during the past two years.
But Pakistan is also besieged by a number of structural problems. Moody's says that public debt is still quite high and living standards are relatively low when compared with other countries in the same rating category as Pakistan. Even after the debt relief obtained in recent years, interest payments and defence spending consume over half of government revenue, restricting its ability to redress persistent poverty and underdevelopment.
These concerns have been echoed by many other international agencies. Last year, the International Monetary Fund stressed that further reforms were needed to improve governance and reduce corruption, including the enactment of effective anti-money laundering and bankruptcy legislation.
Other worries include the political future of the country following repeated assassination attempts on the president, two of which took place in December 2003.
A stable political environment is an essential prerequisite not only for the economy but also to sustain peaceful relations between Pakistan and archenemy India. There are plenty of areas, including chemicals, where the two countries can work together.
Normal relations between Pakistan and India would go a long way towards boosting bilateral trade currently estimated at around US$200m, although informal trade is estimated at US$1.5-2.0bn. Much of the trade is said to take place indirectly through third countries such as Dubai. Informal exports from India include tyres, chemicals, machinery, cement and tea while synthetic fibre, chemicals and food items figure on the Pakistani export list.
Some economists have also cautioned that claims of a full recovery of the Pakistani economy could be a little premature. Their main concern is whether Pakistan will be able to cope with a poor agricultural season and/or a drop in textile exports post-2005 when textile quotas are phased out. Agriculture accounted for nearly 25% of GDP in 2002 while cotton yarn, thread and cloth accounted for around 22% of total exports.
Turning to petrochemicals, despite the promise of a growing domestic market the industry has yet to take off in a big way. Requirements for most of the products are currently met through imports. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), polystyrene (PS) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) are among the major petrochemicals that are produced locally.
Sohail Amin of SaSa & SaSa estimates that annual demand for polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and PVC is 230 000 tonne, 160 000 tonne and 65 000-70 000 tonne respectively. A second industry source believes that the market for all of these products totals 500 000-600 000 tonne/year.
PVC demand is met by local producer Engro Asahi, a joint venture between Engro Chemical, Asahi Glass and Mitsubishi Chemical of Japan. The company operates a 100 000 tonne/year plant near Karachi.
In PE and PP, major market participants include Sabic, Equate, PCC Iran, ExxonMobil and Reliance Industries. Reliance is active mainly in PP as direct imports of only this polymer are allowed from India. Imports of other polymers have to be routed through a third country. There is talk that Pakistan will soon allow direct imports of PE, although it is not clear when this will take place.
Amin points out that the polymer trade is dominated by traders who account for nearly 70% of the imports. Only major end-users in the raffia sector prefer to import directly. And traders are said to be essential to reach local processors. Many foreign companies have reportedly failed in their endeavors to establish a direct link.
The polymer processing and import business is concentrated in and around Lahore and Karachi. There is a small requirement from Baluchistan and Peshawar. Small processors located in this area also ship finished products further north to as far as Tashkent in Uzbekistan.
Polymer imports currently attract a basic import duty of 20%. Traders importing material also pay a sales tax of 15% and an advance income tax of 6%. Clearing and handling charges amount to around 8%.
Amin says that Pakistan is bound to further reduce the basic duty. The country currently has three slabs for customs duties - 20%, 10% and 5%. But the government has applied to the WTO (World Trade Organization) to change the slabs to 15%, 10% and 5%.
Polymer demand has been stagnant for the past few years mainly because Pakistan lost the Afghani market, points out Amin. Previously, a small volume of polymers was imported into Pakistan for further shipment to Afghanistan and even Iraq. But now Iranian material is said to reach Afghanistan over the land border.
But Amin expects growth to pick up this year given the country's robust economic performance, a decline in interest rates, a booming stock market and a pick-up in construction activity. Growth in PP is likely to be faster than PE as the government has started advocating the use of PP woven sacks for packaging of rice and wheat. The government has now made it mandatory for 40% of rice and wheat packaging to be in PP woven sacks, up from the earlier requirement of 20%. Cement is currently packed in paper bags but this industry is likely to move to woven sacks in the future.
Pakistan's dependence on imports has raised interest in some quarters for a cracker project. National Refinery Ltd (NRL) and Pak Arab Refinery (Parco) had commissioned a study for a cracker complex last year that would be mainly based on naphtha obtained from local refineries (ACN 20 October 2003). Besides PE, PP and monoethylene glycol, the project could include PVC, PS and chloralkali. No time frame has been set for the for the project, the viability of which is in question given the small domestic market and the ambitious plans of Iran, Saudi Arabia and also India.
'A cracker doesn't make sense given the cracker and polymer expansion plans in the Middle East. After all, it takes only around two and a half days to ship product from Iran to Pakistan,' points out Amin.
But projects that are likely to go ahead in Pakistan include Pakistan PTA's plan to debottleneck its 400 000 tonne/year PTA plant by 25 000 tonne/year by 2005. A PTA project makes sense given the expansions that polyester companies have planned. One of them is Dewan Salman Fibre, which has identified a 70 000 tonne/year polyester project at Hattar in northwestern Pakistan for commissioning in 2005.
http://www.icis.com/Articles/2004/02/13/55...he-shadows.html